Upjohn Research

Short Hours, Long Hours: Hour Levels and Trends in the Retail Industry in the United States, Canada, and Mexico

Françoise Carré et al. — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:54:24 PDT

In settings where most workers have full-time schedules, hourly wages are appropriate primary indicators of job quality and worker outcomes. However, in sectors where full-time schedules do not dominate—primarily service-producing activities—total hours matter, in addition to hourly wages, for job quality and worker outcomes. In this paper we employ a sector-focused, comparative framework to further examine hours levels—measured as average weekly hours—and trends in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We analyze the retail sector, which is of interest because of its high rate of part-time employment in the U.S. Based on our fieldwork in the United States and Mexico and qualitative literature on Canadian retail work, we argue that the combination of business strategies and very different institutional constraints will lead U.S. retailers to a greater extent and Canadian retailers to a lesser extent to shorten hours and expand part-time jobs, whereas in Mexico it will lead retailers to lengthen hours. We apply this argument to predictions about differences in levels and trends. Drawing on standard public data sources from the three countries, we compare means and run time series regressions to estimate trends net of cyclical effects. Results broadly support our predictions, especially the distinction between the United States and Canada on the one hand and Mexico on the other. We provide additional context for these findings.

This title is not yet available

Stephen A. Woodbury — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:46:33 PDT

Public Pension Crisis and Investment Risk Taking: Underfunding, Fiscal Constraints, Public Accounting, and Policy Implications

Nancy Mohan et al. — Tue, 08 May 2012 05:55:28 PDT

Public pension funds that cover retirement benefits for almost 20 million active or retired employees have been significantly underfunded. An important, though largely overlooked, issue related to pension underfunding is the excessive investment risk levels assumed by public plans. Our analysis suggests government accounting standards strongly affect public fund investment risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher investment risk. Public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that a change in CalPERS portfolio beta or equity allocation is mimicked by other pension funds. Solutions to excessive investment risk include use of more realistic discount rates such as a Treasury rate or a municipal bond yield to estimate liabilities and regulations or practices that reduce the ability of a plan to shift an underfunding burden to future generations.

Evaluating the Effects of Poland's Pension Reform

Marta Lachowska , Principal Investigator — Thu, 03 May 2012 06:43:16 PDT

In January 1999 a significant pension reform was implemented in Poland with a move to a defined contribution system. The new pensions system restructured the state pension benefit into a nationally defined PAYG contribution plan and a funded pension with contributions managed by private pension investment funds. The reform lowered the expected pension wealth for many groups with replacement ratios expected to fall to 50% for those born in the 1960's and to about 40% for those born in the 1970s. This project will study the degree of substitutability between pension wealth and private wealth, address the issue of whether different groups manage to save enough for retirement, and form the background for research on the effects of changes in pension wealth on labor supply.

America's Human Capital Paradoxes

Thomas A. Kochan — Thu, 03 May 2012 05:55:19 PDT

It is widely recognized that human capital is essential to sustaining a competitive economy at high and rising living standards. Yet acceptance of persistent high unemployment, stagnant wages, and other indicators of declining job quality suggests that policymakers and employers undervalue human capital. This paper traces the root cause of this apparent paradox to the primacy afforded shareholder value over human resource considerations in American firms and the longstanding gridlock over employment policy. I suggest that a new jobs compact will be needed to close the deficit in jobs lost in the recent recession and to achieve sustained real wage growth.

Short-Time Compensation as a Tool to Mitigate Job Loss? Evidence on the U.S. Experience during the Recent Recession

Katharine G. Abraham et al. — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 09:42:17 PDT

During the recent recession, workers were eligible for UI benefits only if they were laid off in most states. At the start of the recent recession only 17 states offered short-time compensation (STC)—pro-rated unemployment benefits for workers whose hours are temporarily reduced for economic reasons. The severity of the recession, however, has sparked interest in STC as a tool for mitigating unemployment during downturns. New federal legislation enacted in 2012 will encourage more states to adopt STC programs and will promote greater use of work sharing among all states. In this paper we review arguments concerning the desirability of expanding STC programs in the United States and present new evidence on the use of these programs during the recent recession. Our evidence indicates that jobs saved as a consequence of STC could have been significant in sectors like manufacturing that made extensive use of the program. We conclude, however, that, with the possible exception of Rhode Island, the overall scale of the STC program operating in the 17 states was too small to have substantially mitigated the aggregate job losses these states experienced in the recent recession. Expansion of the program within STC states as well as to states without the program is necessary for STC to be an effective counter-cyclical tool in the future.

Econometric Value of Macomb Community College

Kevin Hollenbeck , Co-Principal Investigator et al. — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 09:33:46 PDT

Institute staff will assess the economic value of Macomb Community College using a regional econometric model (REMI) to estimate the demand side impact of the college’s operation on the Macomb County economy and to estimate the impact on the County of the training that students receive. Staff members will also conduct an exploratory study to estimate the capitalized value of Macomb Community College.

Work Hours in Retail: Room for Improvement

Françoise J. Carré et al. — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 06:07:28 PDT

With full-time jobs, hourly wages are appropriate primary indicators of job quality. However, in sectors where full-time schedules do not dominate, total hours matter for job quality and worker outcomes. We explored hour levels and trends in retail trade and its largest subsector, grocery stores. Retail is known for part-time and short shifts. With a comparison of retail hours in three countries—the United States, Canada, and Mexico—we contribute insights into aspects of the U.S. policy and regulatory systems that could be altered in order to improve retail jobs.

America's Human Capital Paradox

Thomas A. Kochan — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 07:31:41 PDT

Resolving America's Human Capital Paradox: A Jobs Compact for the Future

Thomas A. Kochan — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 07:24:45 PDT

An Assessment of EDA's Partnership Planning Program

George A. Erickcek et al. — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 13:11:10 PDT

This report examines EDA‘s Partnership Planning Program, which consists of Economic Development Districts (EDDs) and the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS) they are required to create, and provides recommendations as to how the program could be improved to lead effective regional development strategic efforts.

Cost Estimate for Lansing Promise

George A. Erickcek , Principal Investigator — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:57:08 PDT

The Upjohn Institute prepared a cost estimate of a first-dollar and middle-dollar Lansing Promise Scholarship Program. In the first dollar scenario, being eligible for the scholarship would not require the completion of the FAFSA for possible federal scholarship assistance. In the second scenario, it would be a requirement. For both scenarios, researchers prepared a 10-year forecast of the program costs. Finally, the Institute provided cost estimates for the following three variations under both scenarios:
1) A universal scholarship for students who reside within the City of Lansing and attend Lansing public schools.
2) A universal scholarship for the above population plus students who reside within the City of Lansing and attend public charter schools located within city boundaries.
3) A universal scholarship for the above population plus students who reside within the City of Lansing and attend private schools located within city boundaries.

Establishing Performance Indicators for Southwest Michigan First

George A. Erickcek , Principal Investigator — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:57:06 PDT

The W.E. Upjohn Institute will, with the cooperation of Southwest Michigan First staff and stakeholders, establish a set of measures that will track SMF’s progress on meeting its ten-year goals outlined in its "Transformation Agenda." SMF has three goals:
•Business Growth ̶ build collaborations to create jobs and wealth
•Vital Urban Cores – strengthen urban cores through developing people and places
•Government Collaboration – lower the cost of government and education through efficiency and collaboration
The metrics developed for this effort are to be selected based on the following key design principles or characteristics:
•Simple, measureable and actionable
•Outcome-driven
•Tie directly to the final (year 2021) job income and capital investment goals

Ten-Year Cost Estimation of a Proposed Lansing Promise Scholarship

George A. Erickcek — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:42:10 PDT

Education Reform and the Limits of Policy: Lessons from Michigan

Michael F. Addonizio et al. — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 08:23:09 PDT

By examining a major set of education policy reforms undertaken in Michigan and across the country over the past 20-plus years, Addonizio and Kearney are able to reveal the varying success of innovations such as finance reform, state assessment of student performance, school accountability measures, charter schools, and schools of choice.

Introduction [to Education Reform and the Limits of Policy]

Michael F. Addonizio et al. — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 07:33:10 PDT

Fiscal Benefit-Cost Analysis and an Economic Impact Statement for a Proposed Conference Center in South Haven

George A. Erickcek , Principal Investigator — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 08:58:23 PDT

The W.E. Upjohn Institute will prepare a cost-benefit analysis and an economic impact statement for a proposed conference center to be located on the south beach in South Haven. The analysis will include a 10-year benefit-cost analysis that will generate a net present value estimate for three separate scenarios about the usage of the center. In addition, the study will estimate the potential economic impact of the proposed center on the City of South Haven.

2012 Supplemental Education Services Online Survey

Kevin Hollenbeck , Principal Investigator — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 11:38:47 PDT

Institute staff will program and host the Michigan Department of Education’s 2012 Supplemental Education Services (SES) online survey. Tasks include (1) Hosting the survey on Institute servers, (2) Making any needed changes to the 2011 survey which the Institute also hosted, (3) Providing technical support during the survey period, and (4) Turning over all survey data to Moore & Associates after the completion of the survey.

North Carolina UI Financing

Christopher J. O'Leary , Co-Principal Investigator et al. — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 11:38:44 PDT

The Upjohn Institute in partnership with the Center for Employment Security Education and Research (CESER) in the National Association of State Workforce Agencies (NASWA) is conducting an evaluation of the unemployment insurance (UI) benefit financing system for the North Carolina Department of Commerce. The work will include simulation analyses of various changes to UI financing and benefit rules. Additionally, the Upjohn-CESER team will assess innovative financial management strategies to regain and maintain solvency of the North Carolina account in the federal Unemployment Trust Fund (UTF) and to service debt to the federal government under Title XII of the W.S. Social Security Act.

Employment Research, Vol. 19, No. 2, April 2012

W.E. Upjohn Institute — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 06:44:26 PDT