The Effect of Declining U.S. Immigration on Labor Markets

Publication Date


Grant Type

Early Career Research Award


Net migration to the U.S. has been steadily declining and is down by 75% between 2016 and 2021. What are the consequences of declining migration to the U.S. for labor markets? Using cross-regional variation in exposure to migration, this paper documents the effect of declining migration on employment, wages, occupation, and educational outcomes in the U.S. and in migrants’ origin countries. Next, using a model of migration across labor markets, I map cross-regional estimates into aggregate outcomes and study counterfactual labor policy exercises, such as changes in visa caps and programs for temporary migration targeted to specific skill groups.