Title

Do Firm Effects Drift? Evidence from Washington Administrative Data

Authors

Marta Lachowska, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment ResearchFollow
Alexandre Mas, Princeton University and National Bureau of Economic ResearchFollow
Raffaele Saggio, The University of British Columbia and National Bureau of Economic ResearchFollow
Stephen A. Woodbury, Michigan State University and W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment ResearchFollow

Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9158-2592

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4474-2415

Publication Date

7-5-2023

Source

Journal of Econometrics 233(2): 375-395

Abstract

We study the time-series properties of firm effects in the two-way fixed effects model popularized by Abowd et al. (1999) (AKM) using two approaches. The first—the rolling AKM approach (R-AKM)—estimates AKM models separately for successive two-year intervals. The second—the time-varying AKM approach (TV-AKM)—is an extension of the original AKM model that allows for unrestricted interactions of year and firm indicators. We apply to both approaches the leave-out methodology of Kline et al. (2020) to correct for biases in the estimated variance components. Using administrative wage records from Washington State, we find, first, that firm effects for hourly wage rates are highly persistent with an autocorrelation coefficient between firm effects in 2002 and 2014 of 0.74. Second, the R-AKM approach reveals cyclicality in firm effects and worker–firm sorting. During the Great Recession the variability in firm effects increased, while the degree of worker–firm sorting decreased. Third, misspecification of standard AKM models resulting from restricting firm effects to be fixed over time appears to be minimal.

DOI

10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.014

Publisher

Elsevier-ScienceDirect

Subject Areas

LABOR MARKET ISSUES; Wages, health insurance and other benefits; Inequality