Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier
Publication Date
1-21-2021
Series
Upjohn Institute working paper ; 21-339
DOI
10.17848/wp21-339
Abstract
This paper estimates that long-run changes in a county’s prime-age employment rate are significantly affected by labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). The overall benefits of labor demand shocks are due more to CZ demand shocks than county demand shocks. A lower preexisting county employment rate increases the effects of CZ demand shocks. Simulations suggest that low prior employment rate CZs, versus higher-rate CZs, will have much larger employment rate effects from demand shocks. Targeting jobs at more distressed counties within a CZ has modest effects, much lower than the effects of targeting jobs at more distressed CZs.
Issue Date
January 2021
Note
Upjohn project #34438
Sponsorship
Smith Richardson Foundation
Subject Areas
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; Local labor markets
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Citation
Bartik, Timothy J. 2021. "How Long-Run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 21-339. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp21-339