Series
Upjohn Institute working paper ; 21-349
DOI
10.17848/wp21-349
Issue Date
June 2021, Revised June 2024
Abstract
Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young.
Subject Areas
LABOR MARKET ISSUES; INTERNATIONAL ISSUES; Globalization; Trade issues
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Citation
Greenland, Andrew and John Lopresti. 2024. "Trade and Structural Change: Focusing on the Specifics." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 21-349. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp21-349