Unpacking Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout-Prevention Experiment
Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier
Series
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 35558
Issue Date
July 2026
Abstract
Timely high school completion is a critical step in successful transitions to post-secondary schooling and the labor market. This randomized controlled trial, deployed in two urban, disadvantaged school districts, tests the effectiveness of a mature and comprehensive student-support program on an unusually large scale (n=2,528). While overall effects on graduation rates are small and statistically insignificant, exploratory analyses reveal notable variation by site and over time, mirroring heterogeneity in treatment timing and program implementation. These findings highlight the challenges of scaling interventions and raise concerns about generalizing results from small-scale, single-site evaluations.
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI
10.3386/w35558
Sponsorship
University of Notre Dame Wilson Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab
Subject Areas
EDUCATION; K-12 Education; Postsecondary education; LABOR MARKET ISSUES
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Citation
Dee, Thomas, Chloe R. Gibbs, Rebecca Margolit-Chan, Lillian Morrell, and James X. Sullivan. 2026. "Unpacking Treatment Effects Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout Prevention Experiment." Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w35558