Publication Date



Upjohn Institute working paper ; 17-266

**Published Version**

In The Economic Journal, 129(617): 1-34




We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to concurrent employment growth in other low-wage jobs, workers previously employed in cognitively routine jobs experience relative wage losses.

Issue Date

December 15, 2016

Subject Areas

LABOR MARKET ISSUES; Wages, health insurance and other benefits; Minimum wage


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Aaronson, Daniel and Brian J. Phelan. 2017. "Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Jobs." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 17-266. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.