What Can We Learn from the 1918 Pandemic? Careful Economics and Policy Lessons from Influenza

Authors

Brian J. Asquith, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment ResearchFollow

Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5783-5557

Publication Date

5-12-2020

Series

Policy Paper No. 2020-022

DOI

10.17848/pol2020-022

Abstract

Economists and policymakers have turned to the 1918 Spanish flu for guidance on the COVID-19 crisis, and some have been cheered by the example of its sharp post-pandemic economic recovery. Policymakers have also been encouraged to use lockdowns and school closures (called non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) in part by research showing that 1918’s NPIs saved lives while aiding the subsequent economic recovery. I review a wide range of research to caution that our own recovery will likely be harder and slower because of how the economy has evolved. I conclude by discussing pro-recovery policy that account for post-1918 economic changes.

Issue Date

May 2020

Subject Areas

LABOR MARKET ISSUES