Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier
Series
Upjohn Institute working paper ; 25-423
DOI
10.17848/wp25-423
Issue Date
October 2025
Abstract
We estimate the effect of the Mexican drug war on Mexico-to-U.S. migration and the resulting effects on population, employment, and wages in U.S. labor markets. Our empirical strategy compares U.S. counties differentially connected to Mexican municipalities through historical migration networks, using drug violence triggered by close municipal elections in 2007–2008 as a source of exogenous variation. Over the following decade, migrants fleeing the violence—the vast majority of whom are undocumented—cause native-born U.S. workers’ employment rates to increase and unemployment rates to fall, while wages do not change. Employment gains are largest for natives without a college degree. Employment effects fade after a decade.
Subject Areas
LABOR MARKET ISSUES; Wages, health insurance and other benefits; INTERNATIONAL ISSUES; Immigration
Get in Touch With The Expert
Want to arrange to discuss this work with the author(s)? Contact our .
Included in
Immigration Law Commons, International Economics Commons, Labor Economics Commons, Migration Studies Commons, National Security Law Commons
Citation
Borgschulte, Mark, Yuci Chen, and Eduardo Medina-Cortina. 2025. "Migration and U.S. Labor Market Effects of the Mexican Drug War." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 25-423. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp25-423